Actuarial team crafts Outbreak Threshold Calculator and Transmission Simulator

The imposition of Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine in high-risk areas such as NCR and General Community Quarantine in moderate-risk LGUs allows businesses to operate under strict guidelines. In the absence of vaccines and limited health care capacity, the country is threatened with another wave of infection.

To provide a strategy to minimize the risk of COVID-19 infection or outbreak in a company, the Actuarial Team of the Institute crafted a calculator which generates the threshold, which is the number of infected individuals who may start an outbreak in a company. It is important to know the threshold so that the company can countermeasure the outbreak by determining how many employees could come to the office and report physically to avoid the outbreak. In addition, the company could select who among the employees can report to work physically in such a way that the risk of the disease outbreak is minimal. 

Moreover, the team also developed a program that simulates the spread of infection within the company. This is done by classifying the employees into risk profiles (low, medium, and high) and model how fast COVID-19 will be transmitted within the company. Using this information, the company may be able to decide which employees will be allowed to work on-site and who will continue to work from home to reduce the transmission of the disease.

(EB Gemida)